The Kitty Genovese witnesses story is fabricated – and so may everything else be

From Nicholas Lemann in the New Yorker, I learn that the famous story of how 38 people witnessed the brutal rape and murder of Kitty Genovese in New York in 1964 but failed to do anything for half an hour, was basically fabricated by the New York Times under editor A. M. Rosenthal.

The story was recounted uncritically as an example of how the presence of many bystanders can lead to a diffusion of responsibility in such a way that everyone fails to act in my introductory psychology textbook from a few years back. In reality, there were only one or two people who unambiguously witnessed the attack without doing anything about it, and two who did intervene. This was also known at the time.

The true story is less spectacular and would probably not have had the good consequences of the fabricated one, but this could not be known at the time, as mentioned in the article. More importantly, however, the real cost of fabricating good stories like this is that when the truth comes out, it diminishes confidence in all else that is written as well.

H/t: Andrew Gelman

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Monthly book roundup – 2014 April

Books finished in April:
(Warning: reviews are unpolished and quickly written.)

Death with Interruptions (2009) by José Saramago. Silly. Death stops within a country, but continues elsewhere. Much ado about this and also when it starts again. Quite boring, and an annoying meta-narrator, who breaks in to talk about his own narration. Did not finish. Not recommended.

Nexus (2012) by Ramez Naam. Action-filled story about the moral dilemmas related to new technology. The illegal drug Nexus enables users to achieve mind-to-mind contact. The young scientist Kade Lane gets in trouble because he tries to improve it. Everyone interested in the drug has their own agenda. Recommended, I will surely read the follow-up Crux. Recommended.

Crux (2013) by Ramez Naam. Picks up six months after where Nexus ended. Multiple actors are hunting the secrets of Nexus, the drug that enables mind-to-mind communication, and, maybe, control. A possible civil war between humans and post-humans is also looming. Crux is just as action-filled as the predecessor Nexus, and comes back to the same issues about expanding experiences, human tribalism and who should have the right to control.

Why Philanthropy Matters: How the Wealthy Give, and What It Means for Our Economic Well-Being (2013) by Zoltan J. Acs. Most of the book is about the the role of entrepreneurship and the opportunities open for all in American economic development. Acs believes philanthropy underlies American economic success. I learnt much less about philanthropy than I expected from this book.

Complications: A Surgeon’s Notes on an Imperfect Science (2003) by Atul Gawande. A great book about the science and practice of medicine. Gawande, a surgeon, gives an insider’s view of the medical profession, a profession that often appears hard-nosed, but is as beset with ambiguity, uncertainty, human judgements, customs, mistakes, and need for practice and learning as other ones. He is not without recommendations, though: Gawande details the benefits of computer-based diagnoses, specialization, the field of anesthesia’s success in reducing human, latent errors by analyzing such errors systematically and comprehensively. Recommended.

Zendegi (2010) by Greg Egan. The setting is Iran in the near future. Iran is now a democracy, but radical innovation in brain-mapping primarily used for games face opposition from several quarters, the issue being the moral status of the (incomplete) uploads. In particular, the Cis-Humanist League objects to enslaved “proxies” (uploads). I did not enjoy the book that much, but I did finish it, and it does raise issues that will become relevant in the future.

Floating City: A Rogue Sociologist Lost and Found in New York’s Underground Economy (2013) by Sudir Venkatesh. Against boxes. Sudir Venkatesh tries to renew himself in New York after the success he had with studying drug gangs in Chicago. He is studying prostitution and drug trafficking, but research progress is often slow and he also has professional doubts. With time he arrives at an understanding about how high and low classes mix to a greater extent in New York than other places, and transcends his pre-conceived conceptions of classes, neighborhoods, and the like. The same type of people, like entrepreneurs, can be found everywhere, everyone has dreams and ambitions, many are driven by the same motives, and the “seekers” connect places. An interesting book, though I did not find the author that rogue.

Stumbling on Happiness (2007) by Daniel Gilbert. We are not good at estimating how happy we will be in the future, and our mind also distorts our memories from the past. Fascinating subject, but I found the book boring, maybe because much of the stuff has become well known. Not finished.

Ratings and old books are in the library.

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Did Manchester United’s decline start under Ferguson?

Carl Bialik (previously known as The Numbers Guy) at 538 argues that Manchester United was exceptionally lucky in Alex Ferguson’s last season, and that David Moyes just kept steady a downward trend. Bialik’s point is that looking at finer measures of performance than simply points, such as the share of shots taken and the goal differential, United should not have done as well as ghey did last year, so Moyes should not be blamed for the (apparent) decline this year. There is a nice graph of the development of United’s share of shots taken the last 12 years in the post showing this clearly.

Practical reasons for not allowing maltreatment

There are both principled and practical reasons for why one should not allow torture or maltreatment of suspects or convicts. A practical one that I believe does not get enough attention is the fact that to catch a criminal, one is often dependent on tips from people who know him. Rachel Gillum writes about “Why the NYPD’s decision to drop a unit that spies on Muslims may help counterterrorism,” because it is essential that the police be regarded as fair and impartial. What I am thinking about the fact that the bar for tipping law enforcement about an acquaintance, friend or relative probably depends on the treatment the suspect can be expected to get. For example, the father of the Detroit/underwear bomber Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab gave the CIA information before the son’s capture. Would he have done so if he expected that his son would face extensive maltreatment in the hands of the authorities?

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How does the Heartbleed bug work?

The Heartbleed bug is everywhere, so it is nice to understand it a little. xkcd has drawn it, but a few words might help to interpret his comic. The “heartbeat” option allows a computer to check that it still has a connection to a server. The computer sends a message, for example “asdfgh” that the server repeats back to acknowledge that it is there. Now, the bug allows tricking the server by telling it that the message sent is much longer than it really is, for example saying that the message “asdfgh” is 64 000 characters. Then the server does not stop after “asdfgh,” but continues with further 63 994 characters from its memory. Since many people use one server, these extra characters may contain usernames and passwords that other people have entered. The heart bleeds.

More information and advice about how to protect oneself at Vox or thousands of other places.

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The benefits of a surveillance state

Surveillance gets a bad rap these days, but here is another perspective, stated clearly for once: Stuart Armstrong writing in the Aeon magazine spells out what the benefits of total surveillance might be.  Summary: less crime, fewer resources spent on police and military, prevent pandemics and terrorists, help disaster response, provide data for research, practical applications, more global trust. (And he duly notes: “these potential benefits aren’t the whole story on mass surveillance.”)

Monthly book roundup – 2014 March

Books finished in March:
(Warning: reviews are unpolished and quickly written.)

American Hippopotamus by Jon Mooallem. The quest to start hippopotamus farming in the US in the beginning of the 20th century. Despite colorful characters, the book is a disappointment, since it takes the far-fetchedness of the idea of importing hippos as given and never gives a clear answer for why it did not happen. Many of the claims about hippos in the book are the oppsite of Jared Diamond‘s explanation in Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies for why they were never domesticated in Africa-namely that they are aggressive and terrorial. To me it did what role such good arguments played.

Epic Win for Anonymous: An Online Army Conquers the Media by Cole Stryker. A look on what was the forefront of the internet, from simple message boards to 4chan, and later became common, like the cheezburger networks. Emphasizes the creativity and in some senses meritocracy that the internet has encouraged. Largely refrains from moralizing.

A Confederacy of Dunces by John Kennedy Toole. I was not aware that the neurotic Elling had a fat American relative. (Or rather an ancestor, or at least a predecessor, as Ingvar Ambjørnsen’s Elling first appeared in 1993, as opposed to A Conferderacy…, which was published in 1980). Very funny, but I started to become quite tired of Ignatius J. Reilly a bit more than halfway through the book.

Guerrilla Warfare by Ernesto Che Guevare. Mostly practical advice, on organization, equipment, discipline, sabotage, and other things. Measured in tone and clear on things like decency towards the civilian population, etc. Also focus on learning and the need for indoctrination. No exaggerated portaits of the other side. It would be good if the tone of ideological discourse was more often like this.

The Information: A History, a Theory, a Flood by James Gleick. Information overload is fittingly the topic towards the end of Gleick’s great flood of information topics – language, writing, code, encyclopedias, dictionaries, computing, naming, mathematics, logic, computer science, genetics, the internet. Too much for me to take in, no less do justice to in writing. Recommended.

Nixon-Kennedy DebatesThe first televised debates between the US presidential contenders. In the fall of 1960. Much like todays debates. A bit more civilized and a little less spin. Nixon in the third debate: “And I only hope that, should I win this election, that I could approach President Eisenhower in maintaining the dignity of the office; in seeing to it that whenever any mother or father talks to his child, he can look at the man in the White House and, whatever he may think of his policies, he will say: “Well, there is a man who maintains the kind of standards personally that I would want my child to follow.”” Yes. Nixon was going to be elected president in 1968 and 1972, and resigned in 1974. Both were highly professional in the debates, as they would have to be to have come to this stage.

Ratings and old books are in the library.

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Trillion dollar bills on the sidewalk

In case you did not notice, Michael Clemence found trillion dollar bills on the sidewalk a few years back. Happy Open borders day!

An experiment on how to improve journal referee speed

Chetty, Saez and Sandor have experimented on the referees of the Journal of Public Economics. They find that somewhat unsurprisingly that shorter deadlines, cash incentives and social incentives make referees faster. Further, cash does not crowd out intrinsic motivation, report quality is unaffected, and spillovers on other referee activites are small or nonexistent. They do note that “[O]f course, referees must forego or postpone some activity to prioritize submitting referee reports. The social welfare impacts of our treatments depend on what activities get displaced.” To the extent that it is just procrastination that is crowded out, the conclusions could be even more positive.

H/t: @JFiva

The persistent effect of affirmative action

Conrad Miller from MIT finds in his job market paper that US affirmative action regulation introduced from 1979 onwards had substantial effect on the black share of employees, also after deregulation. The exogenous variation comes from “changes in employers’ status as a federal contractor” and the fact that it was only federal contractors who were subject to these regulations. To get at the full dynamic effect of the regulation, Miller does not stop at comparing employers when they switch contractor status, but exploits also variation in when the firms are contractors for the first or the last time. In this way he can estimate whether there is a (persistent) causal effect also after a firm has lost his status as a federal contractor (has become “deregulated”). 

The event study results are striking: Miller2014Persistenteffectsofaffermativeactionfigure2eventstudies

Figure 2 Event studies, from Miller 2014 The persistent effect of temporary affirmative action

The effect is quite small – becoming a contractor on average increases an establishment’s black share of around 0.15 percentage points per year – but the key point is that it persists, even when the firm is no longer is a contractor. There is much more in the paper, including a proposed explanation in terms of employers being induced to improve their screening procedures for potential employees.

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