Tag Archives: reviews

Monthly book roundup – 2014 March

Books finished in March:
(Warning: reviews are unpolished and quickly written.)

American Hippopotamus by Jon Mooallem. The quest to start hippopotamus farming in the US in the beginning of the 20th century. Despite colorful characters, the book is a disappointment, since it takes the far-fetchedness of the idea of importing hippos as given and never gives a clear answer for why it did not happen. Many of the claims about hippos in the book are the oppsite of Jared Diamond‘s explanation in Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies for why they were never domesticated in Africa-namely that they are aggressive and terrorial. To me it did what role such good arguments played.

Epic Win for Anonymous: An Online Army Conquers the Media by Cole Stryker. A look on what was the forefront of the internet, from simple message boards to 4chan, and later became common, like the cheezburger networks. Emphasizes the creativity and in some senses meritocracy that the internet has encouraged. Largely refrains from moralizing.

A Confederacy of Dunces by John Kennedy Toole. I was not aware that the neurotic Elling had a fat American relative. (Or rather an ancestor, or at least a predecessor, as Ingvar Ambjørnsen’s Elling first appeared in 1993, as opposed to A Conferderacy…, which was published in 1980). Very funny, but I started to become quite tired of Ignatius J. Reilly a bit more than halfway through the book.

Guerrilla Warfare by Ernesto Che Guevare. Mostly practical advice, on organization, equipment, discipline, sabotage, and other things. Measured in tone and clear on things like decency towards the civilian population, etc. Also focus on learning and the need for indoctrination. No exaggerated portaits of the other side. It would be good if the tone of ideological discourse was more often like this.

The Information: A History, a Theory, a Flood by James Gleick. Information overload is fittingly the topic towards the end of Gleick’s great flood of information topics – language, writing, code, encyclopedias, dictionaries, computing, naming, mathematics, logic, computer science, genetics, the internet. Too much for me to take in, no less do justice to in writing. Recommended.

Nixon-Kennedy DebatesThe first televised debates between the US presidential contenders. In the fall of 1960. Much like todays debates. A bit more civilized and a little less spin. Nixon in the third debate: “And I only hope that, should I win this election, that I could approach President Eisenhower in maintaining the dignity of the office; in seeing to it that whenever any mother or father talks to his child, he can look at the man in the White House and, whatever he may think of his policies, he will say: “Well, there is a man who maintains the kind of standards personally that I would want my child to follow.”” Yes. Nixon was going to be elected president in 1968 and 1972, and resigned in 1974. Both were highly professional in the debates, as they would have to be to have come to this stage.

Ratings and old books are in the library.

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Monthly book roundup – 2014 February

Books finished in February:
(Warning: reviews are unpolished and quickly written.)

Stoner by John Willams. There are many disappointments and setbacks in William Stoner’s life. Although he is successful in a few cases, like caring for his infant daughter and at times in his job. Not an inspirational book, but it makes one think and gives perspective.

We Are Anonymous: Inside the Hacker World of LulzSec, Anonymous, and the Global Cyber Insurgency by Parmy Olson. Get to know some of the Anonymous. The story of Anonymous and related “groups” told through the stories of the six core members of LulzSec – hackers with different motivations and skills that happened to come together and get the opportunity to create trouble for PayPal, the Scientology church, authoritarian governments, Sony, private citizens and many others. Often just because they could. Decentralization and coordination both play roles. Numbers sometimes important and sometimes not. Recommended.

Ubik by Philip K. Dick. Glen Runciter’s firm is in the “prudence business” – protecting people’s minds against others’ psychic powers, such as mind reading. One mission goes awry, and the team must communicate between living and dead, though it is not easy to tell who is what. Things start to revert to earlier forms, in an entropy fashion.

The Man in the High Castle by Philip K. Dick. Alternate history, Germany won WWII, slavery is still legal in the US. Not finished.

All Joy and No Fun: The Paradox of Modern Parenthood by Jennifer Senior. How are parents affected by their children? Research and anecdotes on parents’ time use, devotion to their children, happiness, marriages, social life, work, parenting styles, and other things. At times heavily geared towards American, not-Scandinavian-style-gender-equal conditions, but in general much to recognize and think about for parents. Tells of a survey where kids wanted less stressed mums more than more time with her. Interesting purported link between child care and happiness.

The Crying of Lot 49 (Perennial Fiction Library)
by Thomas Pynchon. Did not catch me, put down quickly, not finished.
Ratings and old books are in the library.

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Monthly book roundup – 2014 January

Books finished in January:
(Warning: reviews are unpolished and quickly written.)
(Extra warning: This time the list is really long, I do not know what happened.)

Pity the Billionaire: The Hard-Times Swindle and the Unlikely Comeback of the Right by Thomas Frank. Shallow (left-wing) criticism of bankers, politicians and in general the politics of the American recession. There are valid points there, but the author is not likely to convince anyone with his hysterical account (and voice-I listened to this as an audiobook).

The Birth of Plenty: How the Prosperity of the Modern World was Created by William Bernstein. Fairly standard account of the world’s economic history since the industrial revolution. Starts with the value of John Harrisons’s newly invented chronometer (to compute longitude) to seafarers in the 18th century. The invention was the result of a prize offered by the British parliament to improve navigation at sea. Bernstein talks about four essential factors: property rights, scientific rationalism, effective capital markets, efficient transportation and communication needed for prosperity. First a little bit in 16th century Holland, then spread. Argues that the communication revolution took place with the electrical telegraph from around 1840-bigger change from before that than from the telegraph to internet. I liked the hypothesis that cheap cotton underwear lead to a decline in infectious diseases such as cholera and typhoid. Repeated side remarks about less development in non-western cultures and the dangers of cultures crashing do not add to the discussion and just drag the book substantially down.

The Outlaw Album: Stories by Daniel Woodrell. Short stories of people on the edge.

The Death and Life of the Great American School System: How Testing and Choice Are Undermining Education by Diane Ravitch.

What is wrong with American schools? Apparently, measurements become goals and people are not aware of their limitations, and so we might be better off without the measurements in the first place. This point should have come before over halfway into the book.

Ravitch was for many years a member of the Koret Task Force on K-12 Education at the Hoover education. A co-member there was economist Erik Hanushek. Hanushek has done several appearances at the podcast Econtalk. In one of those episodes the host Russ Roberts asked if it might be a problem that people were “teaching to the test” and Hanushek responded that you just had to design good test, implicitly assuming that that was possible and actually done.

She tells a tale of murky politics arround the introduction of new methods. Difficult to assess. The critique of the foundations who give money to everyone is also not altogether well-argued, in my opinion. Huge variation in charter schools – both really good and really bad.

Catalogue of how tests can have bad consequences: overfocusing on narrow tests, overfocus on basic reading and math, as opposed to science, history, social science, civics, reduced emphasis on subjects not tested, reducing standards, selecting only those that one believes will do best, outright cheating, too hard sanctions, underemphasis of responsibilities of parents and students themselves, intrasparent value-added-schemes. Ravitch commits some inaccuracies regarding the usefulness of data when going through all this, but the case is largely well made: Measures often lead to overfocus on that which is measured to the detriment of other valuable things, and their limitations will typically not be recognised.

A book worth to read for those who are interested in basic education. I lacked one thing: A discussion of the value of testing for learning about teaching, i.e. without the accountability part. Sometimes it sounds like Ravitch believes that the dangers with tests are so great that they should be avoided whatsoever. However, whatever one’s opinion on test-based accountability, tests and measurements do have roles to play in providing information.

The War of the Worlds by H. G. Wells. Martians come to earth and dominate. Humans, though they have adapted, must flee or be eaten. Classic.

Weapons of Mass Instruction: A Schoolteacher’s Journey Through the Dark World of Compulsory Schooling by John Taylor Gatto. Modern schooling is a tool for stifling thinking and controlling the masses. Endless examples of people without much formal education who have made it big, nothing about the failures. Reasoned critiques of the school system are valuable. This book is not.

Undiluted Hocus-Pocus: The Autobiography of Martin Gardner by Martin Gardner. Gardner was the legendary writer of a column called “Mathematical games” between 1956 to 1981, and also a prolific writer on other topics. A keen and able magician, he seems to have come across many interesting characters through the magician community. Not a professional mathematician, but says that the fact that he struggled to understand what he wrote helped him “write in ways that others could understand (p 136).” Recommended.

Carrots and Sticks: Unlock the Power of Incentives to Get Things Done by Ian Ayres. How to use contracts with real incentives to reach your goals. The goals can be anything, from quitting smoking and losing weight to read more books, be on time or call your grandma more often. The key is to have a contract that says if you do not reach your goal, you will give money to a friend, a charity, an enemy, or teach a class wearing only a speedo. If the threat in the contracts is credible, it allows one to commit. The simplest contracts can be based on self-reporting and honesty, but often there is a designated referee and verifiable information involved. Ayres and Dean Karlan set up a website (stickK.com) that allows people to enter into these contracts. Dean Karlan tried to make voting contracts to enable people to make a credible promise to vote, but although effective, they did not catch on so far. Thomas Schelling was early into this field as many others, he wrote about self blackmail-writing a incriminatory letter to be published if the letter-writer was not drug-free at a later testing. These contracts do not solve every problem in the world, but the changes people actually use them for can make a big difference to them.

The Ocean at the End of the Lane: A Novel by Neil Gaiman. Small boy gets caught up with supernatural stuff. Book of the year of 2013 in the British National Book Awards. Not my style.

The Economic Naturalist: In Search of Explanations for Everyday Enigmas by Robert Frank. Most of the explanations seemed trivial or silly. I put it down quickly.

Reappraisals: Reflections on the Forgotten Twentieth Century by Tony Judt.

Recommended.

Historian Judt’s essays about various people and themes of the post war period in Europe, often in the form of extended book reviews. Intellectual commitment or opposition to communism a red thread. Israel another. I guess the book is sort of like a supplement chapter to the big Postwar: A history of Europe since 1945 from 2005.

Believes today’s political squabbles are often foolish. Clear about the welfare state as “born of a cross-party twentieth-century consensus. It was implemented, in most cases, by liberals or conservatives who had entered public life well before 1914 and for whom the public provision of universal medical services, old age pensions, unemployment and sickness insurance, free education, subsidized public transport, and the other prerequisites of a stable civil order represented not the first stage of twentieth-century socialism but the culmination of late-nineteenth-century reformist liberalism. A similar perspective informed the thinking of many New Dealers in the United States (p. 10).”

Interesting thoughts on what is the relevant counterfactual for Italy – could it be that some of the inefficiency helped keep a fractious country together?

One great thing with Judt is that he is almost always criticizing all sides of a debate. But he clearly has much sympathy with what used to be the left. The last chapter is partly about how the left must come to terms with its own responsibilities for what went wrong in the 20th century to become a good alternative again.

Ratings and old books are in the library.

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Monthly book roundup – December

Books finished in December:
(Warning: reviews are unpolished and quickly written.)

Falling Behind: How Rising Inequality Harms the Middle Class (Wildavsky Forum Series), by Robert Frank. Good short version of Frank’s ideas about positional goods, inequality, expenditure cascases, taxes, etc.

The Men Who Stare at Goats, by Jon Ronson. Did the US military have a program that tried to teach soldiers how to stare animals to death? This and related questions are explored in Ronson’s book about supernatural methods and the military. It is funny but does raise real questions about knowledge, on part of both the protagonists and the reader.

The Strange Case of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, by Robert Louis Stevenson. The classic story of the good, but boring Dr Jekyll who transforms himself into the vital and evil Mr Hyde. Jekyll comes to loath him, but has become addicted. I enjoyed it.

Reports from Nuremberg, by Harold Burson. Radio reports from the Nuremberg trial. We hear the formal indictment, which consisted of four charges:
1. Conspiracy
2. Crimes against the peace, planning, preparing , initiating and waging a war of aggression in violation of int treaties.
3. War crimes. Wanton destruction of towns, villages and cities not justified by mil necessity.
4. Crimes against humanity. Extermination, enslavement and deportation of peoples, persecution on political, racial and religious grounds.
Will try to prove in open court.
24 names. 20 present. 12 sentenced to death, 7 to prison terms, 3 acquitted, 2 trials did not proceed. Get to know the courtroom and the people involved through the radio report. The apparent normality of the accused is mentioned explicitly.
Interesting.

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, by F. Scott Fitzgerald. Not sure what to say that this story was about, but an entertaining, absurd plot. Very short.

Future Perfect: The Case For Progress In A Networked Age, by Steven Johnson. Peer networks to save the world! The book lacks a discussion of possible trade-offs (like “Everything bad is good for you” had). Not Johnson’s best.

All of These People: A Memoir, by Fergal Keane. Journalist Fergal Keane’s stories of trouble in Northern Ireland, South Africa, and personal life. Fitting to read now, as Nelson Mandela just passed away. I did not know that the apartheid regime in South Africa was engaged in torture. Keane makes a point of always being understanding of his subjects. I do not know Keane as a journalist, but the book was ok.

The Unnamed, by Joshua Ferris. Tim has to walk. Why or where to he does not know, despite his efforts to find out. Existentialism.

Then We Came to the End: A Novel, by Joshua Ferris. Office life. Read about half of it. Some funny bits.

Ratings and additional books are in the library.

Review: The Victory Lab by Sasha Issenberg

Attending a seminar about turnout of young voters in Norway at the Institute for Social Research, I am reminded of Sasha Issenberg’s excellent book The Victory Lab: The Secret Science of Winning Campaigns from last year. Here is a mini-review:

Great story of the work of political campaigns and political participation generally. Someone interested in applying the methods in another context, such as another country, must keep in mind how much they rely on the public voting files that give information of whether someone voted. Without these, the micro-targeting made possible by matching the voter records with consumer databases and census information would not be feasible, and it would make experimentation much more difficult. Recommended, but there is one thing that bothers me: The actual politics is often lost sight of. It would be great if these advances also could contribute to improving policy.

Below is a really long summary:

Introduction
-renewed interest in small improvements after narrow Bush election, etc.
-”crucial divide” … between “new empiricists and the old guard”
-Political consultant Mark Grebner contacted Gerber and Green. Sent people copy of their and their neighbour’s (public) voting histories before election, and said they would inform also about whether voted after election. Increased turnout by 20 %. Problem: Looked dirty/like blackmail. Solution through testing and trial and error: Use a more gentle tone. Also have it look more like information than advertising.
-The problematic story of data in Al Franken’s 2008 Minnesota Senate race. Because of a close initial margin (favoring Republican Coleman), a mandatory recount had to take place. Importantly, there were many votes that were wrongly rejected the first time. These, absentee (challenged), votes were now to be included, and Franken’s team identified those who were most likely to favor him, like those “challenged for change-of-address discrepancies (p 10),” got more of those opened, and carried the race. I do not understand why they did not draw a random sample of those challenged.
-Ch 1. How the field of political science failed to take the road of randomized field experiments.
-beginning of 20th century, political science emerged, and as direct primaries and elections became more common, a study began also of the voters, not only of institutions and parties, as previously. A key man was Gosnell, who in the 1920’s in Chicago experimented with different types of reminders to voters of a coming election. “Gosnell’s conclusions were obvious – mobilization efforts can have the biggest impact in places where little else is pushing voters to the polls – but no one had ever before quantified them (p. 26).” But although his method received a positive reception, the field of randomized field experiments did not take off. Instead the field of polling was developed to great sophistication, with especially the data gathered in what later became “American National Election Studies”.
-Ch 2. Increased focus on who to target – in particular getting out one’s own voters and convincing undecided. Vince Barabba merged socioeconomic information from the 1960 Census with political information to identify precincts where there might be swing voters. Sending letters to potential donors. Malchow arranged a large poll with few questions for Wyden’s campaign to get more disaggregated data. Argued for including controls groups, but met resistance, because the campaigns wanted everyone to be included. One of his workers, Anil Mammen: ““Convincing people to ignore people they would otherwise mail or contact people they would otherwise ignore is a major hurdle. You’re making an argument that’s counterintuitive and your evidence is something they haven’t seen before.”(p. 67)”
-Ch 3. Experiments of Green and Gerber. Shallow critique of rational choice models. Brief history of field experiments. From medicine. Tests of social programs under Lyndon B. Johnson, most famously the effect of a negative income tax: Randomization of bonus payments to low-income groups to look at labor supply effects-found … But not in elections and voting, a field GG went on and made their own. In the 1998 (uncompetitive) New Haven election, they randomized postcards, scripted calls and door knocks to 30 000 New Haven voters, each form of contact additionally containing different appeals. After the election they checked the public(?) individual voter histories and found that the scripted calls had no effect, postcards had almost none, whereas the individual visits had a huge impact, increasing average turnout by 8.7 %. A clear theoretical contribution was hard to formulate, but the practical implications for campaigners were clear.
-Ch 4. The Democrats developed field operations well in the 80’s and 90’s. Paul Tully lead the work in gathering data relevant for turnout, including precinct data from the Census. Taken up by the Republicans in the 00’s.
-Ch 5. The rise of polling, and then of large corporate databases. The Republican Gage in 2001 bought a large file with data on consumers, polled 5 000 of these with about 20 questions on political issues, then looked for connections between the personal and political variables and used what he found to microtarget messages. Developed further for Bush’s 2004 campaign, often targeted the voter with a message about the only issue that the voter agreed with the Republican party with. Also approached scientifically how to elicit anger with questions on that issue. Is is not really clear how the matching between the registries occurred? By name?
-Ch 6. How the geeks took over from the gurus. After 2000, some Democrats realized they were lagging behind. In the 2004 elections, a sample of 20 000 people formed a basis for experimentation with messages when combined with repeated polling and regular mailings. Showed whether people looked at the messages, what worked, and what worked with whom. Credit scores as a model. Emergence of the Analyst Group.
-Ch 7. The power of the social element and psychology. Todd Rogers drawing on Cialdini’s research, like “what he described as injunctive norms (“ you should not litter”) were far less effective at changing behavior than descriptive norms (“ few people litter”) (p. 186),” and towels in hotel rooms. Wanted to test this in the Democratic presidential campaign (for Wesley Clark), but it was decided that the candidate could not afford to leave out a control group of untreated. Later he got the chance in the gubernatorial elections in 2005, and learned that, contrary to the gurus’ opinion, warning about low turnout not effective, whereas emphasizing that others vote is. Grebner collaborated with Gerber and Green to send letters with information of subjects’ vote histories, cloaked in various terms, all of which created effects of 30+%.
-Ch 8. Republican consultant Dave Carney tinkers in various ways. One ex is different anti-Clinton mails, which was effective but not widely implemented in the 2006 presidential election because of fears of a clashback. Teamed up with Perry. Implemented win bonuses for those working for them. Later initiated a collaboration with G&G and two other academics, Daron Shaw and James Gimpel for the 2006 Texas gubernatorial race. They tested: TV ads at different amounts after matching similar media markets-found that had immediate effect that decayed; candidate visits-TV coverage had effect, personal visits had lasting effects. Conclude that tv advertising not very effective, contrary to conventional wisdom, as seen in the money allocated to it.
-Ch 9. The increasing sophistication of microtargeting. Young consultant Dan Wagner hired by Obama 2008 campaign. Database with more or less every American voter. Ken Strasma had been an early proponent of extrapolating political information about known populations to those with otherwise similar characteristics. Special challenges related to the caucuses. Matching people using several hundred consumer variables. Sophistication of Obamas’s primary campaign. Gathering of more and more data, implementation of competition between phone vendors and checking whether they did their job. People less honest when answering a volunteer than a paid call. Tracking of opinion shifts identifying “shifters” giving a more nuanced view of the undecided.
-Ch 10. Sophistication of Obama presidential campaign. Importance of good data from the field. Creation of canvassability, callability and answerability scores to help with this. Randomization of web page features and money requests- “A/B tests”. Demonstration of superiority of online ads and street teams over television for reaching young voters. Ability of the question ““Do you think your neighbors would be willing to vote for an African-American for president? (p. 296)” to pick out those for race was important.
-Epilogue. The social element of voting. Rogers’ experiment with mailing vote histories to people inspiring a follow-up by Malchow: First a phone call asking whether intended to vote, then those that said yes received a letter and then a robocall close to the election reminding them of the pledge – very effective, created new votes at 18 dollars each. Costas Panagopoulos’ experiments: Mailing people message that would publicize those who voted vs those who did not – the latter more effective; thanking those who voted in a previous election had effect; “honor roll” of people never having missed an election or thank you note – both effective. Gerber, intrigued by finding that many believed that the vote was not necessarily secret, found that mail with explanation of how it was kept secret increased turnout dramatically for registered voters that had not voted before. Malchow experimenting on ways to register new voters.

Monthly book roundup – November

Books finished in November:
(Warning: reviews are unpolished and quickly written.)

Everything Bad is Good for You: How Today’s Popular Culture is Actually Making Us Smarter, by Steven Johnson.

Recommended. Everything bad is good for you is something as unorthodox as a passionate argument about the cognitive benefits of popular culture. Johnson claims that popular culture today is so challenging and stimulating that we get heavy mental exercise by consuming it. Much of the book focuses on games, which is where I believe Johnson has the strongest case: Popular video games demand thinking and well thought strategies and plans, chores sometimes have to be performed, gratification is delayed, patience is required. Some lament how games are not like books, but like Johnson, says, the novelistic parts of games are their least interesting aspects. In games the content is not the primary benefit, but rather the mental exercise they provide. Reward and exploration are also essential parts: Players have to probe the game, explain it, figure out its rules and find its weak spots. To put it another way, they have to think about the system and what are the limits of the simulation. In this aspect – that ambiguity is essential – video games are different from board games and other traditional games. This is a highly entertaining account of games, and one that concurs very well with my own experience.

Johnson also defends other parts of popular culture, such as television shows and films, that contain many more subplots and where action is expressed with much more subtlety than in previous times. Even reality shows and tv debates get a positive rap, since they require strategy and emotional intelligence and adaption as rule change, in the case of the former, and we are good at judging people by face. To some extent all this seems right, but the question is how much of popular culture it holds for. Though it must be said that at least in the case of tv shows, Johnson argues at length that it is not only niche high brow shows that now have a bigger market to cater to, but that also middle or low brow culture have been lifted.

Johnson sees in all this an explanation of the Flynn effect, i.e. the sustained increase in measured intelligence test scores in many countries throughout most of the 20th century. That is a fascinating thought, but one that would demand more large-scale evidence than hitherto provided to be accepted. Hopefully some researchers out there are on the case.

Naked, by David Sedaris. Very funny.

Reagan In His Own Voice. Ronald Reagan’s daily radio broadcasts from the late 1975-79. In 1976 Reagan launched a failed bid to become the Republican party’s presidential candidate (against the incumbent Gerald Ford). His small radio speeches were probably a way to continue to be in the public sphere. The editors claimed that Reagan wrote most of the material himself. That is impressive if true, although he did not seem to have a formal job until he became president in 1981. Some of the addresses seem quite idiosyncratic, so that supports the claim. I disagree with many of the views expressed, but it is too bad that politicians today seem to be less free to express their personal views, with political communication having become wholly professionalized.

Ratings and additional books are in the library.

Scott misses the point of Diamond’s The World Until Yesterday

Does James Scott have something personal against Jared Diamond? That is unfortunately the question one is left with after reading Scott’s review of Diamond’s The World Until Yesterday. Scott acknowledges that the question of whether there is something to be learnt from traditional societies is reasonable, however he resents Diamond’s answers.

First, he thinks the lessons to be learnt are unexciting:

But what a disappointment it is, after nearly five hundred pages of anecdotes, assertions, snippets of scientific studies, observations, detours into the evolution of religion, reports of near-death experiences – Diamond can be a gripping storyteller – to hear the lessons he has distilled for us. We should learn more languages; we should practise more intimate and permissive child-rearing; we should spend more time socialising and talking face to face; we should utilise the wisdom and knowledge of our elders; we should learn to assess the dangers in our environment more realistically.

But what what kind of magic bullets was Scott expecting?

Second, he mischaracterizes Diamond as maintaining

the indefensible premise that contemporary hunter-gatherer societies are survivals, museum exhibits of the way life was lived for the entirety of human history ‘until yesterday’ – preserved in amber for our examination.

Of course Diamond believes no such thing, but in the absence of much hard evidence, contemporary traditional societies is what we have. Maybe Diamond exaggerates what can be learnt, but Scott does not make this nuanced criticism. And even if he had, that would partly have been missing Diamond’s purpose, which specifically is to see the world of traditional peoples as being full of small experiments that we might learn from, not to show exactly how people lived hundreds or thousands of years ago.

Scott tops it by ending the review with asking Diamond to “shut up”. All this is unfortunate, since what is valuable in his review disappears. I too thinks it strange that Diamond does not discuss large-scale wars or other dangers of modern states. There are problematic aspects of the development of states. Scott claims that slave-holding was also an essential part of early states.

To conclude, Diamond’s point, which Scott apparently does not see, is to see what we can learn from traditional societies. His sample size is limited, but he does a great job with what he has.

Monthly book roundup – October

Books finished in October:
(Warning: reviews are unpolished and quickly written.)

David and Goliath: Underdogs, Misfits, and the Art of Battling GiantsReviewed before.

The Darwin Economy: Liberty, Competition, and the Common Good by Robert H. Frank. Recommended.

Robert Frank contends that in a hundred years from now, economists will have recognized Charles Darwin as the most important economic thinker. Darwin was influenced by Adam Smith, but had a wider conception of competition. A key distinction is between traits that are beneficial for an individual and the species, and traits that are beneficial for an individual but not the species. An example of the latter is the horns of the bull elk, featured on the cover. The horns are an asset when fighting for females, but not when trying to escape predators. Frank believes that had the elks had the opportunity to vote to downsize all the horns, they would have done so unanimously, like hockey players when considering the mandatory use of helmets.

Frank believes such head to head competition is important for humans as well, as much of what we care about is “graded on the curve”. He starts with the example of competing to have the best/most expensive suit. This may seem trivial, but he follows up with more important cases, most importantly of how people overinvest in houses, both because of trying to keep abreast of one’s neighbors and because school quality is related to certain areas. Cars and parties are other goods that make people try to outcompete each other, to the detriment of the common good. As people compare themselves with those slightly higher on the curve, “expenditure cascades” result.

Since we have these strong positional concerns, one’s consumption imposes a negative externality on others, and should be taxed like other externalities. The way to do this is by way of a progressive consumption tax – take income minus savings, and tax that at a progressive rate. This avoids the negative effects of income and payroll taxes (on saving and job creation). And in the long run, everyone will be richer as a result of the increases investments. This seems like a good idea regardless of what one believes about expediture cascades.

I find Frank’s thoughts very appealing. One difficulty is that many types of expenditure can be seen as investments. If I pay for education rather than saving, should that be treated as consumption? I am not sure how one would deal with that and other similar issues. But the book is definitely recommended.

Hits to both the left (tax rather than regulate; there is no conspiracy among capitalists) and right (public spending is too low, we should increase it by taxing harmful activities).

The Invisible Gorilla: How Our Intuitions Deceive Us by Christopher Chabris and Daniel Simons. Recommended.

Popular, yet rigorous, science. The care the authors take not to overstate their claims or their generality stands out in this book by experimental psychologists Christopher Chabris and Daniel Simons. The book is organized around six common cognitive illusions: 1) Attention (just because we are paying attention does not mean we notice everything); 2) Memory (memories are fragile, impacted by beliefs, perception and other things, and may be misleading); 3) Confidence (confidence is not necessarily related to skill, feedback is essential for improvement); 4) Knowledge (we believe we know more than we do, e.g. do not really know how things, machines, markets, etc work); 5) Cause (correlation is not, we see patterns and make predictions); 6) Potential (not everything have a quick and easy fix).

A very good book, though times it goes through things in too much detail, and the authors sometimes assume too little sophistication about how “we” interpret things, at least when writing about how we infer causal relationships. They also say that we have no way to know about cause-effect in the absence of an experiment, however there are other ways of identifying causal effects.

The purported cognitive benefits of su-doku, crossword puzzles etc, classical music have not shown up in rigorous studies. Research on the benefits of more advanced games have so far produced ambiguous results.

Fluency can be misleading. The book ends with a plea for thinking things through and being way about intuitions. But do look for the gorilla, it may be that we do not see one because of the illusions.

The Honor Code: How Moral Revolutions Happen by Kwawe Anthony Appiah. Appiah tells the stories of three once-pervasive but now abandoned customs – the duel in aristocratic England, foot-binding in China, and slavery – and one that is still alive – honor killings of women in Pakistan. He notes that the abandonment of these practices did not result from moral arguments alone, as they were always put forward long before. At the same time, it is not simply legislation that caused the revolutions. Collective action among families apparently was important in ending foot binding. The account the working class supporting the abolition of slavery because it degraded manual labor is very nice, but I wonder what historians think. At the end of the book I am not too much wiser on how they do happen, as the stories are quite different for the different cases, although it has to do with shifting codes of honor. I reviewed a couple of Appiahs book last month, I liked those better.

Scarcity: Why Having Too Little Means So Much by Sendhil Mullaainathan and Eldar Shafir. In contrast to other popular science books, here for once is one that acknowledges that there are trade-offs in the world-more of everything is not necessarily better. Much is quite standard for an economist used to thinking about scarce resources, here attention. The novel point is that scarcity itself is costly. Scarcity reduces “bandwith”, like a computer overloaded with running programs. An experiment with random assignment of rich and poor show how scarcity itself can be stressful and thus important beyond having fewer resources. Planning ahead is important for success-is there a difference between long-term thinkers and others? Maybe not, since find many who do not think ahead among students at good universities and other resourceful people. But there really are differences among, I would object, the question is what trait or combination of traits is more fundamental. Everyone tunnels, but it is a good idea to structure incentives well inside the tunnel. The authors recognize that we need to prioritize what to incentivize the poor to do, since every activity taxes bandwith. Effects on bandwith are important to consider and also to see as an outcome. E.g. helping a poor mother with full-day child care so she does not have to juggle so many arrangements. Allocated bandwith more important than number of hours, ref Ford and efficiency wages.

Mathletics: A Scientist Explains 100 Amazing Things About the World of Sports by John Barrow. Ok. In most cases too many simplifications or not too illumating.

Ratings and additional books are in the library.

Review: David and Goliath by Malcolm Gladwell

The full title is David and Goliath: Underdogs, Misfits, and the Art of Battling Giants

Malcolm Gladwell has been criticized by some scientists for cherry-picking anecdotes and not understanding the statistics behind the research he presents (Pinker) and of overgeneralization (Chabris), so I was a bit skeptical before picking up one of his books for the first time. However, with these criticisms in mind, I would recommend the book. More sympathetic reviews from which I also learnt a lot are those of Tyler Cowen  and Andrew Gelman .

[SPOILER alert]

Uneven conflicts and unconventional methods
Gladwell writes that David and Goliath is about two ideas about uneven conflicts: That “much of what we consider valuable in our world arises out of these kinds of lopsided conflicts, because the act of facing overwhelming odds produces greatness and beauty. And second, that we consistently get these kinds of conflicts wrong,” since being an underdog can give advantages. Gladwell’s retelling of the tale of David and Goliath is intriguing, I wonder where he got that version from. In short, the outsider David breaks the rules and norms of single combat by using his stone-slinging skills to defeat the giant. Gladwell refers to calculations of the force of a slinged stone. Power and strenght deceive. A similar example is the success of Lawrence of Arabia in leading Arab forces against the Ottoman Turks during World War I. Lawrence, like David, did not have a stake in the military establishment, so he was free to use unconventional methods. Gladwell goes on to tell of other succesful underdogs.

But if unconventional strategies are so effective, why do not everyone use them? First, many do have a stake in the establishment, so feel bound to e.g. play basketball the way that is considered right. Second, underdog strategies are demanding. That is a reason why being bad at conventional methods can be good, since it leaves no other alternative.

Another question, that is not treated, is why the resourceful side does not realize that the opponent will employ an unconventional strategy and guard properly against it.

U-shaped relationships
Gladwell asserts that how difficult it is to parent has a U-shaped relationship with money, because if one is very rich, it is difficult to provide one’s children with the sort of struggle that builds a good character. Class size is also purported to have some optimal intermediate level. The discussion of the competitiveness of the school environment is one of the few places where Gladwell explicitly says that it probably produces mixed effects, although he focuses on the negative effects of comparing oneself to the top. Apparently the distribution of published papers early in economists’ careers is extremely skewed towards those at the top of their class, despite the fact that there is huge selection into the top programs to begin with. A novel, for me, explanation of the high suicide rates in certain highly developed countries also has to do with comparisons: Where most people are happy, it is even more difficult to be unhappy, driving more people over the edge.

Desirable difficulties
People with dyslexia are apparently well represented within certain measures of success. Is dyslexia therefore maybe desirable? Here Gladwell does say that most people cannot master all the difficult steps for it to be a “desirable diffuculty” but he also says that “those who can are better off than they would have been otherwise, because learning out of necessity is inevitably more powerful than the learning that comes easy.” However, even the succesful ones do not wish it upon their children, since they also suffered much because of it, suggesting that even for them it might not have been a net benefit.

Seen from the right perspective, the strength distribution in some of the conflicts, like the one between David and Goliath, is actually the opposite of what we often think.

The political, last part of the book does not hang well together with the rest. Civil rights in us, advocacy for harsher punishments, brutal approach by British in north Ireland, rescuing of Jews by Huguenot village.

In response to criticism, Gladwell has claimed that he is primarily engaged in storytelling. I would guess that Gladwell sees some of himself in the (dyslexic) lawyer David Boies, about whom he admiringly writes that he unlike his competitors does not get bogged down in excessive detail. And I must say that at least in this book, he is quite careful about not strictly committing statistical fallacies, by using words such as “many,” “much, “can,” etc. I like that trait, but he often implies much more by the context. If one is used to evaluate arguments critically, this is annoying, but not too big a problem. It may also not be a problem if one is “perfectly aware of the strengths and weaknesses of the narrative form,” as Gladwell believes his readers to be. A think that is too optimistic, but even if it is not, stories can be too smooth, a point both Chabris and Gelman are getting at. Gladwell should know this, as his book is itself an attack on ideas that are too simple.

Conclusion
Is the book worthwhile? Yes. Through good storytelling it provokes a fresh thinking through of things that are often considered settled.

Monthly book roundup – September

Books finished in September:
(Warning: reviews are unpolished and quickly written.)

The Idealist: Jeffrey Sachs and the Quest to End Poverty by Nina Munk. Recommended. 

The story of Jeffrey Sachs’ rise (and fall?). Sachs became a celebrity as an economic shock therapist in Bolivia in the late 1980’s and then in Poland and Russia. He then turned his considerable attention to poverty and in particular Africa, wanting to jump-start economic development there. He often argued on the basis of cost-effectiveness, as with the case for controlling malaria, but seems to have been consistently overoptimistic about how to obtain and keep up funding. In addition to disregarding advice on how to implement his changes, in particular on creating local ownership, controlling corruption and creating accountability. Add to this a lack of any strategy for measuring results, it is no surprise that the debate about the impact of Sachs’ highly advertised Millennium Villages have become heated. A piece (by Michael Clemence and Gabriel Demombynes, both involved in the debate) about what can be learned about the need for transparency from that controversy can be found here.

In the book, Sachs comes off as motivated and engaging, but also as righteous, preachy, and someone not tackling criticism or dealing with real-world constraints. Sachs drew much criticism for the effects of his shock therapies, but I believe his approach there was the right one: Acknowledging that there are trade-offs and costs that must be incurred, but that the alternative is worse. When trying to do too much, one may easily end up getting done nothing.

Cosmopolitanism: Ethics in a World of Strangers (Issues of Our Time) by Kwame Anthony Appiah. Appiah traces the history of cosmopolitan ethics to try to stake a course between cultural relativism and value fundamentalism. He does not present clear-cut answers, but believes mutual understanding will ensue if both (or all) sides participate in conversation – both in its original meaning of living together and of the current meaning of discussing – and get used to each other. Then we may actually learn from our differences. And presumably also extend our moral circle. Perhaps this is naive, but perhaps not. I particularly liked the part where he reminds us that people with different beliefs often appeal to evidence the same way, e.g. by employing explanations that they cannot account for in detail, invoking authorities, and bringing up new facts that needs explaining. He is perfectly clear that modern science most often provides better explanations, thanks to its institutional structure that has been built and has persisted for a long time.

Experiments in Ethics (Mary Flexner Lecture Series of Bryn Mawr College) Kwame Anthony Appiah. Experimental philosophy is a rapidly growing new discipline, in which philosophical concepts and intuitions are investigated empirically. Appiah begins his book with an exposition of the well known fact that today’s narrow conception of philosophy is a very recent phenomenon, philosophers from antiquity to the 18th century worked in what is today known as science, and all this work fell under the label of philosophy. For example, the “natural philosophies” of Copernicus and Kepler were included a survey of “Philosophies.”

Appiah uses this to show that philosophers were no strangers of experiments, and draws the line to today’s experimental philosophers by stating that experimental thinking was also part of their repertoire. David Hume explicitly claimed to be engaged in “experiments” in his works. Although it is not altogether clear what exactly Hume intended with his use of the word, he was always committed to data.

I was not aware that Thomas Schelling was an early investigator of modern “behavioral economics” topics like the reference point and the win-loss distinction.

I like that Appiah discusses the uncertainty present in “trolley” scenarios, too few people consider that, in my opinion essential, element in these cases. Although he loses me after that.

Jonathan Haidt has become famous arguing that people reason from intuitions and emotions to moral judgment. Appiah cleverly suggests that Haidt himself may be doing the same in some of his cases of whether a particular act is a moral offense (such as having sex with a dead chicken, and then cooking and eating it). People’s reasons for why these things constitute a moral offense are not very informative, but are other reasons?

 

Ratings and additional books are in the library.